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US Energy Information Administration Raises Crude Oil Price Forecast
Sep 25, 2018

On September 12, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted in its September short-term energy outlook report that Brent crude oil prices will reach an average of US$74/barrel next year, while the average price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will be More than $67/barrel. Both forecast prices are $3/barrel higher than the August forecast.

Higher crude oil price forecasts reflect lower forecasts for global oil supply in 2019, based on lower expected production in the US, Canada and OPEC (non-crude liquids). Lower production forecasts are only partially offset by lower oil demand forecasts next year.

The US Energy Information Administration predicts that global liquid fuel inventories will be reduced by 400,000 barrels per day this year compared to 2017. In the next 2019, global liquid fuel inventories will increase by 100,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 200,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast.

The relatively stable inventory level outlook during this forecast period helps predict that Brent crude oil prices will continue to stabilize at $72-76/barrel from September this year to the end of next year.

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